P ProbLab
Tools/Conditional Probability Tree

Conditional Probability Tree

Visualize a two-event probability tree. Set P(A), P(B|A), P(B|¬A) and see joint, marginal, and posterior probabilities with a labeled diagram.

Inputs

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Probability tree

Result

Why probability trees matter

Most probability questions confusion comes from confusing P(A|B) with P(B|A). A tree makes the order of multiplication explicit and the law of total probability (P(B) = P(B|A)·P(A) + P(B|¬A)·P(¬A)) becomes a visual sum of two branches.

Who uses it

  • Educators teaching the law of total probability.
  • Medical residents internalizing sensitivity/specificity.
  • Engineers working through reliability block diagrams.

Limitations

  • Two events only. For three+ events, the tree grows exponentially — try the Bayes calculator instead.
  • For very small probabilities, canvas text becomes hard to read — interpret numerically.