Roulette Strategy Analyzer
Compute the expected return of European vs American roulette with custom bet patterns. Includes a martingale ruin-curve simulator so you can see why doubling after losses doesn't beat the house edge.
Setup
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Bankroll trajectory (Monte Carlo)
Theoretical edge (1 spin)
What this tool actually shows
Roulette's "no system works" claim is mathematically true, but most explanations online are vague. This tool shows you the trajectory of bankroll under a chosen strategy — flat, martingale, reverse, D'Alembert — so you can see the difference between short-term variance (which feels like winning) and long-term expectation (which always loses).
Why martingale "looks like it works"
On a $500 bankroll with $10 starting bet, you can survive 6 consecutive losses before ruin. The probability of a 7-loss streak in 100 spins is roughly 16%, so most sessions "feel" survivable — until one bad streak hits and wipes everything. The chart makes this visually obvious.
Limitations
- We don't model table maximums — in reality, casinos cap bets to break martingales.
- This is a fair simulation of the wheel, not a recommendation. The expected value of every bet is negative.
Frequently asked questions
How do I use Roulette Strategy Analyzer step by step without mistakes?
Follow the order given in the usage section: Analyze European vs American roulette: bet patterns, expected return, martingale ruin curve, and how the house edge changes with bet type. The step-by-step part matters less than the unit check that sits inside it. Confirm every unit matches the thing you are actually trying to measure before you press calculate - that single check catches more wrong answers than any other habit, and it costs about ten seconds.
What are the common mistakes when using Roulette Strategy Analyzer?
Most common mistakes come down to four habits: entering 20 when the field expects 0.2 because the field is a percentage; leaving a field blank and accepting the default without checking what it stands for; changing one input and reading a result that was calculated before the change; and quoting the output as an exact figure when the page describes it as a reference estimate. Press calculate again after any edit, and treat the number as a reference point rather than a final answer.
How do I read the result from Roulette Strategy Analyzer?
Read the final figure first, then come back to this section for the conditions behind it: Analyze European vs American roulette: bet patterns, expected return, martingale ruin curve, and how the house edge changes with bet type. Keep two things apart: the number itself, which comes from the values you typed, and the assumptions it depends on, which decide whether that number is meaningful. The page sets out what a higher or lower result means for your case, so check that direction as well as the magnitude.
Can I act on the Roulette Strategy Analyzer result directly?
Treat it as one reference sheet before you decide, rather than as the answer itself: We don't model table maximums — in reality, casinos cap bets to break martingales. This is a fair simulation of the wheel, not a recommendation. The expected value of every bet is negative. P ProbLab A free, no-login toolkit for real probability and statistics The output describes a magnitude under the conditions you entered. It does not include what it actually costs to act, what might change while you act, or how the other side behaves. Before you commit, compare the result against reality and note which assumptions do not hold where you are.
What inputs does Roulette Strategy Analyzer need?
Roulette Strategy Analyzer takes 6 inputs: Wheel、Bet type、Bet size (units)、Strategy、Bankroll (units)、Spins to simulate. They are listed in the order they feed the calculation, so an earlier value can change a later one. Do not skip a field you do not recognise - work out what it means first, because a silently guessed value produces a number that looks reasonable and is not. Before typing anything, make sure every figure uses the same unit and the same time period.
What should I check before I run Roulette Strategy Analyzer?
Three checks pay for themselves. First, confirm the question you need answered is really inside the scope of this tool rather than a neighbouring one. Second, confirm that the figures you have are drawn from the same source and the same period - mixing monthly and annual numbers, or two different definitions of the same quantity, quietly distorts the result. Third, keep the key inputs written down, so that later you can tell which set of numbers produced a figure you are about to quote.